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The college football world was expecting a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matches underwhelmed, offering lots of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went an ideal 4-0 against the spread, consisting of three relatively non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public don’t seem to think so. A minimum of in 2 cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been an especially popular pick with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to overall dollars since Monday afternoon.
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“All the cash is coming in on Texas,” Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text message to The Athletic. “We require Arizona State to cover +13.5.”

The enthusiasm for the Longhorns extends to the futures market as well. Bear in mind that massive $1.5 million wager on Texas to win all of it at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.

Interestingly, the Longhorns’ opponent, Arizona State - the biggest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most like from sharp wagerers. The Athletic talked to several bookies who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line down to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a “extremely reputable gamer.”

Despite the fact that respected money has actually can be found in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do just that, as public wagerers are overdoing Texas.
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“We would like to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book,” Magee added.

While the Texas game will be huge for the books, it isn’t the only game in town. We chatted with numerous bookmakers to break down where the wagering action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State

This game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has actually crept up a little to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly split at most sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but only 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in terms of total tickets at BetMGM books.

“We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. “I wouldn’t be surprised if this line sneaks up a little bit more before kickoff, but I currently invite any Boise State cash.”

Ohio State got the Oregon second chance it desired. Are the Buckeyes prepared for revenge?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most surprising to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These groups fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet.

So why is OSU preferred?
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Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke with before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker pointed out that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also formed his opening line.

Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before reputable money pushed it to the current line of -2.5. A slightly higher majority of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near to 60% of the cash has actually can be found in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.

“We did take some reputable money at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it’s remained,” Gable stated. “It’s good two-way action at that number right now. The overall has actually gone up 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the biggest move of any of the overalls. Money has actually all been on the over so far.

Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp bettors, told The Athletic that “Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and instantly our Ohio wagerers believed we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55.”

He did note, however, that the book had actually seen substantial buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff’s second round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The favorite flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.

What caused the line turn? Simply put, the wagering action.
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Although Georgia’s beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been changed by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars wagered), and it has actually been “one-way traffic on Georgia,” according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at numerous sportsbooks.
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